The Concept of Volcanic Eruption Scenarios within the Kos-Yali-Nisyros-Tilos Volcanic Field

For Nisyros and the surrounding volcanic field, several possible hypothetical hazards have been investigated on the basis of all morphological, geological, geophysical and geochemical data sets and monitoring results: (1) earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and hydrothermal explosions are seen as primary hazards; and (2) landslides, tsunamis, rock falls, and mudflows are considered secondary hazards resulting from earthquakes and volcanic activity.

(1) Three major types of primary volcanic eruption scenarios can be considered:

• "Strombolian eruptive activity": eruptive activity during a short period of time (days to weeks),
• "Vulcanian eruptive activity": explosive eruptive activity (phreatomagmatic) during a short to intermediate period of time (weeks to months),
• "Sub-Plinian to Plinian eruptive activity": strong to extreme explosive eruptive activity (phreatomagmatic) during an intermediate to long period of time (months to a few years).

(2) Recognition of secondary hazards resulting from earthquakes and volcanic eruptions: The combination of the geotechnical map with a morpho-tectonic slope map generated a "Slope Stability Map", which will serve as a basis of hazard and site identification, in conjunction with earthquake activity and volcanic eruption scenarios. This map allows the immediate recognition of four major secondary hazard elements: rock falls, landslides combined with flood waves, hydrothermal eruptions, and ground movement due to fault displacements.

created by geopublic